1) Outstanding Drama Series (3 nominations up in the air)
LOCKS:
* Breaking Bad (AMC)
* Game of Thrones (HBO)
* True Detective (HBO)
THE LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS:
* Downton Abbey (PBS)
* House of Cards (Netflix)
* Mad Men (AMC)
* Masters of Sex (Showtime)
* The Good Wife (CBS)
BRIEF DESCRIPTION: Hot damn, do we live in a great age for television. Ever since a new(er) network that called themselves HBO first decided to air Oz and The Sopranos, more and more networks have tried to get in on the action. Showtime got fans sucked in with Dexter and they stayed for Homeland and middle aged women with problem, FX started with The Shield which led them to air Justified and Fargo. AMC tries their best to be HBO. They first aired Mad Men which then led them to air Breaking Bad and The Walking Dead. Now networks that don't even air on television like Netflix (House of Cards and Orange Is The New Black), Amazon (Alpha House), Hulu (Deadbeat), and Yahoo (Community) are getting in on the action. The point is, there is just so much damn good television to watch thanks to the broadening of networks, that there's very little margin for error to earn an Outstanding Drama Series nomination in 2014. Last year, there were 7 shows realistically competing for 6 spots, so HBO's 2-time Outstanding Drama Series nominee Boardwalk Empire was left high and dry. Now there's 8 shows realistically competing for 6 spots with Boardwalk Empire and Showtime's Homeland loitering around.
Either Breaking Bad or True Detective is going to win the whole she-bang, so both of those shows are safe, and Game of Thrones is adored by both critics and fans and is coming off of its greatest season yet, so the HBO epic is also safe. But outside of that? Your guess is as good as any.
Click here to see my full reasoning behind how I picked these Winners and Losers
THE WINNERS:
* Downton Abbey (PBS)
* House of Cards (Netflix)
* Mad Men (AMC)
THE LOSERS:
* Masters of Sex (Showtime)
* The Good Wife (CBS)
2) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (1 or 2 spots up in the air)
LOCKS:
* Claire Danes (Homeland)
* Connie Britton (Nashville)
* Elizabeth Moss (Mad Men)
* Kerry Washington (Scandal)
* Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
THE LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS:
* Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife)
* Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)
* Robin Wright (House of Cards)
* Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
* Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel)
BRIEF DESCRIPTION: Truthfully, there is only one person who is a lock in this category, and that's 2-time Emmy winner Claire Danes from Homeland who is poised to three-peat this year. Other than that, no one is safe. No one. I'm confident that two-time nominee in this category Michelle Dockey and Emmy darling Connie Britton are guaranteed nominations, but Hitfix's Daniel Feinberg believes each lady is 8th and 10th respectively according to his "power rankings"and will be on the outside looking in. Feinberg believes former winner Julianna Marguiles is going to earn a nod, but I do not because the Emmy's history suggests once you lose your nomination (MArguiles failed to earn a nomination last year in a relatively weak year) it's difficult to get it back. Recent television has been good to the ladies (possibly a backlash to the decade and a half of male anti-heroes?) and as such, this category had SEVEN nominees last year as opposed to the normal six. To make matters even worse, all 7 nominees are eligible again this year PLUS you have newcomer Lizzy Caplan to add to the mix along with The Internet's Golden Girl and favorite snub-to-complain-about Tatiana Maslany (I wrote a post how I didn't think Maslany was going to earn a nomination this year and I received the most vitriol to a post I've ever received thanks to the loyal Orphan Black fans) to add to the mix. There are a lot of great female actors who deserve a nomination, and unfortunately, not everyone will get one.
Click here to see my full reasoning behind how I picked these Winners and Losers
THE WINNERS:
* Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)
* Robin Wright (House of Cards)
THE LOSERS:
* Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife)
* Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
* Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel)
3) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (2 spots up in the air)
LOCKS:
* Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
* Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
* Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
* Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)
THE LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS:
* Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
* Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
* Martin Sheen (Masters of Sex)
* Woody Harrelson (True Detective)
BRIEF DESCRIPTION: Again, we have another Breaking Bad vs. True Detective race for first place. Either 3-time Emmy winner, and now Tony winner Bryan Cranston is going to win this category this year, or 2014 Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey will. Therefore, obviously, both are lock to earn a nomination. I also believe that 6-time nominee in this category Jon Hamm is also a lock and 2013 winner in this category Jeff Daniels is also a lock because I can't imagine a scenario in the Emmy's where you win one year and not get nominated the next (although apparently Daniel Feinberg does). That leaves two open spots in this category. There's two men who earned a nomination last year (Bonneville and Spacey) competing against two newcomers (Sheen and Harrelson), one of which is an Oscar nominee (take a guess which one). Martin Sheen and Woody Harrelson star in shows that are just better than Kevin Spacey and Hugh Bonneville, but the Emmy's also love consistency in the nominees. However, the Emmy's also love nominating The Shiny New Toy and both Sheen and Harrelson fit that bill. It will be interesting to see how this race eventually pans out.
Click here to see my full reasoning behind how I picked these Winners and Losers
THE WINNERS:
* Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
* Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
THE LOSERS:
* Martin Sheen (Masters of Sex)
* Woody Harrelson (True Detective)
4) Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series (7 or 8 legitimate contenders for 6 spots)
THE LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS:
* Adam Driver (Girls)
* Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
* Beau Bridges (The Millers)
* Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
* Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
* Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
* Tony Hale (Veep)
* Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
BRIEF DESCRIPTION: We do have attrition between 2013 and 2014 as Bill Hader (SNL) earned a nomination in 2013, but he isn't eligible again this year. However, last year, two-time winner in this category Eric Stonestreet failed to earn a nomination, and you have to assume that Hader's spot will just be replaced by Stonestreet. The real problem that exists is that you have two newcomers (Braugher and Bridges) who are Emmy darlings that you almost have to assume earn a nomination this year. Andre Braugher has 7 Primetime Emmy nominations and a win for his work on five different projects and Beau Bridges has a whopping 14 nominations and 3 wins for his work on just a litany of things. I think you also have to assume he's going to earn another Primetime Emmy nomination for his work on Showtime's Masters of Sex in the Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series category. In the end, I'm guessing that Bridges and Jesse Tyler Ferguson won't earn a nomination, but I'm sure I'll be wrong.
Click here to see my full reasoning behind how I selected these Winners and Losers
WINNERS:
* Adam Driver (Girls)
* Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
* Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
* Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
* Tony Hale (Veep)
* Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
LOSERS:
* Beau Bridges (The Millers)
* Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
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