FIP stands for Fielding Independent Statistics. It's one of the best statistics to determine how good a pitcher truly is by taking his defense behind him out of the equation. However, things the pitcher can control like walks and home runs are taken into account. Generally speaking, if a pitcher has a FIP higher than his ERA, his ERA will rise and if his FIP is lower than his ERA, his ERA will drop. Here's a list of pitchers with the greatest ERA/FIP splits.
PITCHERS WITH A HIGHER FIP THAN ERA
1) Alfredo Simon (CIN): 2.22
2) Chris Young (SEA): 2.05
3) Shelby Miller (STL): 2.05
4) Julio Teheran (ATL): 1.93
5) Wily Peralta (MIL): 1.70
6) Dillon Gee (NYM): 1.52
7) Marco Estrada (MIL): 1.45
8) Jeff Samardzija (CHC): 1.41
9) Sonny Gray (OAK): 1.32
10) Tom Koehler (MIA): 1.25
ANALYSIS: Not all of these pitchers are necessarily "sell high" candidates. Jeff Samardzija for example has the best ERA in baseball. Of course is ERA is going to rise. Samardzija has the 17th best FIP in the majors. That's not excellent, but it's not even close to terrible either. Chris Young, Marco Estrada, and Shelby Miller on the other hand? They have three of the four worst FIPs in the majors. They're obvious "sell high guys". Of course, the most obvious one is Alfredo Simon. SELL! SELL! SELL!
PICTHERS WITH A HIGHER ERA THAN FIP
1) Kevin Correia (MIN): 2.32
2) Clay Buchholtz (BOS): 1.73
3) Edwin Jackson (CHC): 1.49
4) Bartolo Colon (NYM): 1.22
5) Matt Garza (MIL): 1.20
6) Justin Masterson (CLE): 1.19
7) Gio Gonzalez (WAS): 1.13
8) Corey Kluber (CLE): 1.10
9) David Price (TB): 1.08
10) Ian Kennedy (SD): 1.05
ANALYSIS: Some of the names on this list like Clay Buchholtz, Kevin Correia, and Matt Garza are on here just because their ERA is just so high, that it's going to naturally regress, but it's still not going to regress to the point where they're fantasy viable. it's like the opposite of Jeff Samardzija. However, there are some interesting names to target, the most obvious one to me is Ian Kennedy. Kennedy has an ERA is the high threes, but his FIP is 2.75 and he pitches his home games in PETCO park. Kennedy also has a K/9 over 9.00 and a BABIP of .321. Everything screams to me to me regression. So when he was dropped in my league, I immediately snatched him up.
David Price is another guy to target, especially the if his or her owner spent a high draft pick him and is upset with Price's 4.28 ERA. Price has a 3.20 FIP, a 10.00 K/9, a BB/9 under 1.00 and great Rays defense behind him, but a crazy unlucky .345 BABIP.
Matt Garza has a FIP of 3.72, Gio and Edwin Jackson have a FIP under 3.50, Corey Kluber has a FIP of 2.32, and #12 on this list Aaron Harang who is going to be really good this year are all guys to target.
PITCHERS WITH A HIGHER FIP THAN ERA
1) Alfredo Simon (CIN): 2.22
2) Chris Young (SEA): 2.05
3) Shelby Miller (STL): 2.05
4) Julio Teheran (ATL): 1.93
5) Wily Peralta (MIL): 1.70
6) Dillon Gee (NYM): 1.52
7) Marco Estrada (MIL): 1.45
8) Jeff Samardzija (CHC): 1.41
9) Sonny Gray (OAK): 1.32
10) Tom Koehler (MIA): 1.25
ANALYSIS: Not all of these pitchers are necessarily "sell high" candidates. Jeff Samardzija for example has the best ERA in baseball. Of course is ERA is going to rise. Samardzija has the 17th best FIP in the majors. That's not excellent, but it's not even close to terrible either. Chris Young, Marco Estrada, and Shelby Miller on the other hand? They have three of the four worst FIPs in the majors. They're obvious "sell high guys". Of course, the most obvious one is Alfredo Simon. SELL! SELL! SELL!
PICTHERS WITH A HIGHER ERA THAN FIP
1) Kevin Correia (MIN): 2.32
2) Clay Buchholtz (BOS): 1.73
3) Edwin Jackson (CHC): 1.49
4) Bartolo Colon (NYM): 1.22
5) Matt Garza (MIL): 1.20
6) Justin Masterson (CLE): 1.19
7) Gio Gonzalez (WAS): 1.13
8) Corey Kluber (CLE): 1.10
9) David Price (TB): 1.08
10) Ian Kennedy (SD): 1.05
ANALYSIS: Some of the names on this list like Clay Buchholtz, Kevin Correia, and Matt Garza are on here just because their ERA is just so high, that it's going to naturally regress, but it's still not going to regress to the point where they're fantasy viable. it's like the opposite of Jeff Samardzija. However, there are some interesting names to target, the most obvious one to me is Ian Kennedy. Kennedy has an ERA is the high threes, but his FIP is 2.75 and he pitches his home games in PETCO park. Kennedy also has a K/9 over 9.00 and a BABIP of .321. Everything screams to me to me regression. So when he was dropped in my league, I immediately snatched him up.
David Price is another guy to target, especially the if his or her owner spent a high draft pick him and is upset with Price's 4.28 ERA. Price has a 3.20 FIP, a 10.00 K/9, a BB/9 under 1.00 and great Rays defense behind him, but a crazy unlucky .345 BABIP.
Matt Garza has a FIP of 3.72, Gio and Edwin Jackson have a FIP under 3.50, Corey Kluber has a FIP of 2.32, and #12 on this list Aaron Harang who is going to be really good this year are all guys to target.
WHO ARE YOU GOING TO TARGET IN A TRADE IN YOUR FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE?
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