COLD, HARD LOCK NOMINATIONS: Outstanding Comedy Series, Best Lead Actress (Julia Louis-Dreyfus), Best Supporting Actor (Tony Hale), Best Supporting Actress (Anna Chlumsky)
Full Disclaimer: I've seen the first season of Veep as well as the first half of the second season, but then I had to stop. I am not a fan of the show, and I just couldn't watch any more episodes. However, this post is an objective discussion of who will or won't get a nomination and my feelings are irrelevant. In fact, most shows I like don't get nomination and many shows I don't like do get nominated.
QUESTION ONE: Will Julia Louis-Dreyfus reign come to an end in 2014?
To say the Emmy's love Julia Louis-Dreyfus is an understatement. They're infatuated with her. Julia Louis-Dreyfus has FOURTEEN acting Emmy nominations to date: 2 for Veep, 5 for The New Adventures of Old Christine, and a whopping 7 for Seinfeld. Louis-Dreyfus has also won an Emmy for her work on each of those shows including two for Veep. If she wins the Emmy again for Best Actress in a Comedy Series, that will make it three in a row. So will she win?
To determine this answer, I decided to look at history and statistics. I took a look at the 8 major acting categories since 2000 to see how common it was for an actor or actress to win three straight in a row. While this is absolutely arbitrary and more anecdotal than scientific, I think it's extremely interesting. Since 2000, there have been 10 instances where an actor has won 2 Emmy's in a row and was eligible for a third for the same role in the same category. They are (in alphabetical order):
- Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
- Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
- Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
- Glenn Close (Damages)
- Brad Garrett (Everybody Loves Raymond)
- Patricia Heaton (Everybody Loves Raymond)
- Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
- Jeremy Piven (Entourage)
- Doris Roberts (Everybody Loves Raymond)
- Tony Shalhoub (Monk)
Out of those ten nominees, only three went on to win 3 straight Emmy's: Cranston, Piven. and Roberts.
Click here for a more in depth analysis on the historical Emmy odds to win 3 in a row
Click here for a more in depth analysis on the historical Emmy odds to win 3 in a row
Now I fully admit that you can read into this analysis in an assortment of different ways. It's possible that it's just a small sample size. Also, this evidence doesn't disprove the notion that Emmy voters vote on who they think the best winner is, and the fact that there have only been 3 three-peats since 2000 is just coincidental. However, I chose to look at this evidence that it's really difficult to win three straight Emmy's in a row. Another wrinkle to this equation is that Claire Danes from Homeland (assuming she, like Dreyfus, gets nominated- which I think they both do) will also be up for a three-peat. I think Danes gives a more difficult performance and is much more likely to win three in a row than the Veep star is. It's just tough for me to say that TWO actresses can three peat in one year.
So do I think Julia Louis-Dreyfus' reign will come to an end in 2014? I do. I'm a biased when I say that? A little bit.
QUESTION TWO: How will the Emmy's teat Veep in the non-acting categories?
In Veep's rookie season, the show earned two major Emmy nominations: Outstanding Comedy Series and Best Actress. The next year, it earned two additional nominations: Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Veep is currently fully entrenched in it's third season and has the reputation as the funniest show on television. However, throughout the show's run, it has never earned a directing or writing nomination. If the HBO comedy will ever earn these technical awards, 2014 will be the year.
Not only is Veep's reputation and quality on the rise, its competition is on the decline. Three shows were nominated in the Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series (The Office, 30 Rock, and Louie) and two of those those (the NBC ones) aren't eligible in 2014. Only one show from 2013 isn't eligible again in 2014 (30 Rock) in the Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series, but Glee earned a nomination last year, and I doubt that will continue again. The door is wide open for Veep to continue to pile up the nominations. Now since Veep hasn't gotten these nominations before, I'm not the least bit confident that it will earn them this year. Plus, since Veep is mainly improvised, I wonder if the show will ever earn a writing nomination because the Emmy's might feel like it's the actors that are doing all the work and the writers aren't doing anything. With all that being said, 2014 should be a good stepping stone for Veep if the show is going to continue to increase the amount of nominations it gets every year.
This is one question that I don't have the answer to, and we're just going to have to wait to see what the Emmy's have to say about it.
This is one question that I don't have the answer to, and we're just going to have to wait to see what the Emmy's have to say about it.
DO YOU THINK JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS WILL WIN HER THIRD EMMY FOR VEEP IN 2014?
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