COLD, HARD LOCK NOMINATIONS: Outstanding Comedy Series, Best Supporting Actress (Julie Bowen), Best Supporting Actress (Sophia Vergara), Best Supporting Actor (Ed O'Neill), Best Supporting Actor (Ty Burrell), Best Supporting Actor (Jesse Tyler Ferguson)
EDUCATED GUESS NOMINATIONS: Best Supporting Actor (Eric Stonestreet), Best Director (Gail Mancuso, "My Hero"), Best Director (Beth McCarthy-Miller, "A Hard Jay's Night")
QUESTION ONE: Will Eric Stonestreet earn a nomination this year?
Yes.
This is surprisingly not actually a guarantee. Even though Stonestreet has won two Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series awards for his work as Cam on Modern Family, he shockingly failed to earn a nomination last year. His fellow Modern Family actors, Ty Burrell, Ed O'Neill, and Jesse Tyler Ferguson all earned Emmy nominations last year, but Eric Stonestreet did not.
I personally believe that once a Modern Family actor has won an Emmy for their work on the show, they should cease to earn nominations until everyone in the cast gets to win an award. I like to personally believe that this was the reason for Stonestreet's snub, but the reality of it is that the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series category is just extremely crowded and Stronestreet's nomination just wasn't good enough.
2013 marked the first time since 2010 (Modern Family's rookie season) that all six adult actors from the show didn't at least earn a nomination, and that was because the Emmy's were punishing Ed O'Neill for throwing his hat into the Best Lead Actor category whereas the other five were in the Supporting Actor categories. Once O'Neill made himself eligible in the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series category, all six adult actors earned an Emmy nomination in 2011 and 2012.
2013 appears to be the anomaly, and even though the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series category is extremely deep again, I still find it incredibly difficult to believe all six adult actors won't again each earn an Emmy nomination.
QUESTION TWO: Will any child actor from Modern Family earn an Emmy nomination in 2014?
No.
If it didn't happen in 2013, it will never happen. I thought Sarah Hyland, the actress who plays Haley Dunphy, had a shot to earn a nomination last year because she had a really good Emmy submission episode/character arc and she was more of an adult than a child now on the show since graduating from high school. I also (incorrectly) assumed that the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series potential nominees were weak. The Emmy's expanded the normal six nominations to seven last year, and still no child from Modern Family, not even the well-deserved Hyland, could get a nomination.
If none of the female child actresses could get a nomination where only two of the spots are all but guaranteed to Modern Family actresses, then there is no way in hell that a male child actor will earn a nomination when 4 of the 6 spots will be filled with Modern Family actors.
I think it's ageist to think that all the adults are doing great acting, but none of the children are. However, I also don't think any one individual actor from Modern Family deserves to win over another, because no single actor acts better than another on the show.
QUESTION THREE: Which director will earn a nomination from the show?
I believe that Orange Is The New Black will earn an Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series nomination because it's a great rookie show that's essentially a drama. I also believe that Louie C.K. and Lena Dunham will each earn a nomination for directing Louie and Girls, respectively, because they always do. Lastly, I believe that Modern Family will earn two directing nominations, because you can never go wrong predicting Modern Family will earn Emmy nominations. I believe the two nominations will come down to these four choices:
Steven Levitan
Levitan is the (co)creator of Modern Family, won Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series in 2012, has another Directing nomination in 2011, and directed the wonderful "The Wedding, part 1"
Gail Mancuso
Mancuso won Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series in 2013 for directing a Modern Family episode, earned another nomination for directing Modern Family in 2011, and directed the very busy "Las Vegas" this year. I think "Las Vegas" is a great episode in terms of comedy directing, but I also have no idea what makes a great, or even good, comedy director, so what do I know. The Director's Guild of America (DGA) *does* know something about comedy directing (at least I hope they do) and they honored Mancuso with a nomination in 2013 for directing "My Hero".
Beth McCarthy-Miller
While McCarthy-Miller has never earned a nomination for directing Modern Family, she is one of the most respected comedy directors in the business. She has *eight* Primetime Emmy's for directing Saturday Night Live and 30 Rock and has three Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series nominations in the past four years. While Beth McCarthy-Miller did direct a Parks and Recreation episode (the excellent "Galentine's Day") an a Trophy Wife episode, with 30 Rock gone, good money says that if Beth McCarthy-Miller earns an Emmy nomination, it'll be for her work on Modern Family.
Bryan Cranston
The Emmy's clearly love his acting and Cranston was nominated for a DGA award in 2013 for directing a Modern Family episode entitled "The Old Man and The Tree". I think he's a long shot to earn a nomination, but it's most certainly a possibility.
Gun to my head, I'm guessing Beth McCarthy-Miller and Gail Mancuso are the recipients of Modern Family's two directing nominations, but it's all a guess. It's also possible that Modern Family only earns one Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series nomination like it did last year.
HOW MANY EMMY'S DO YOU THINK MODERN FAMILY IS GOING TO WIN IN 2014?
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