COLD, HARD LOCK NOMINATIONS: N/A
STRONG EDUCATED GUESS NOMINATIONS: Outstanding Drama Series, Best Lead Actor (Kevin Spacey), Best Lead Actress (Robin Wright)
QUESTION ONE: Will House of Cards earn a second Best Drama Series Emmy nomination?
Last year, the groundbreaking Netflix series was one of the six shows that earned an Outstanding Drama Series Emmy nominations. I do think it will be one of the six that earns one again this year, solely because it earned one last year, but I think its nomination is in jeopardy.
I loved the first season of House of Cards and I thought it was the 4th best show of 2013. However, I thought the political drama was horrible this year. Now that being said, I seemed to be alone on an island on that one. When I posted my disdain for House of Cards this year on Facebook and Twitter, I was met with a huge backlash. The show was never a huge critical success, but the fans seemed to have been overjoyed by it. If the fans are still on board, then I give House of Cards a bigger benefit of the doubt. My personal feelings are irrelevant, because I don't have an Emmy vote. I'd like to do some analysis on whether there was a decline in viewers, but a) Netflix doesn't release their numbers. To anyone. And b) more viewers doesn't necessarily equal more fans of the show.
The main reason I think House of Cards' Outstanding Drama Series nomination is in jeopardy is because there are just too many damn good shows out there. I think Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Mad Men, and True Detective are absolute locks to get nominations with Game of Thrones right behind it. That leaves only one spot left. Showtime's Homeland and Masters of Sex are in the running for that "last spot" and it wouldn't surprise me if Masters of Sex comes up big at the Emmy's and it wouldn't surprise me if it earned zero nominations. Like I said earlier, I think House of Cards does earn that sixth spot, but it's margin is razor thin and I personally don't think it deserves to.
QUESTION TWO: Will Kevin Spacey earn another Outstanding Lead Actor nomination?
For me, it's tough to distinguish between how bad the show was and how good of an actor Kevin Spacey is. I guess since I loved Spacey last year I should love him this year, but a bad show brings a lot of people down with it.
If I were to do a power rankings for the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series category I would say that Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) and Matthew McConaughey (True Detective) are numbers 1 and 2 in no particular order, Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom) is last year's winner which means he's 3, and Jon Hamm (Mad Men) is a six-time nominee in this category so he's 4. That only leaves 2 more spots. The Emmy's absolutely adore Hugh Bonneville and I think everyone who predicts that Bonneville won't earn a nomination is thinking with their hearts and not their head. So that's 5.
That means Kevin Spacey has to compete with Martin Sheen (Masters of Sex) and possibly former winner Damien Lewis (Homeland) and Oscar nominee Woody Harrelson (True Detective).
I think Spacey has the leg up earns that "sixth spot" because not only is he a former nominee in this category, but he's won not one but two Academy Awards. But like the show he's on, his nominee is not a guaranteed lock.
QUESTION THREE: Will Robin Wright earn another Outstanding Lead Actress nominations?
Robin Wright's nomination is probably the safest nomination out of the three mentioned, but even her nomination isn't really safe. Wright is a legitimate movie star in the Emmy's eyes having starred in films like The Princess Bride and Forrest Gump which I think helped propel her to a nomination last year. I think her nomination in 2013 will help her get another one this year. Plus, I don't think Wright's competition is as strong as either Kevin Spacey's or the show itself competition is.
Orphan Black's Tatiana Maslany (who's on a show nobody watches) and Master of Sex's Lizzy Caplan (who doesn't nearly have the same pedigree as Wright does) are in competition to knock off Wright, and I don't think either have what it takes. Plus, if Maslany or Caplan or anyone else does earn a nomination, I think Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel) would be the first to go, and then maybe Elizabeth Moss (Mad Men) because I don't think she has a great Emmy submission episode will go before Robin Wright loses her nomination.
QUESTION FOUR: Will Molly Parker earn an Outstanding Supporting Actress nomination?
No.
If Corey Stoll couldn't earn an Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series nomination last year for his work on House of Cards, then there's just no way in hell the Deadwood alum has a shot this year. If I had an Emmy vote, I'd vote for for Molly Parker. However, unfortunately for her, I do not.
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