The news for which shows will throw their hat into which ring for the 2014 Primetime Emmys seems to be racking up these days. Recently, HBO stated that True Detective will enter into the Drama categories as opposed to the Miniseries categories (if American Horror Story is any precedent, the show could have done that and swept them all no problem). This news is coming on the heels that Netflix will throw Orange Is The New Black into the comedy specter after it's failed attempts in other award shows, like the Golden Globes, to be a drama. Lastly, Showtime's Shameless has decided that it's 4th season will be a comedy after 3 failed attempts at earning drama nominations from the Emmys.
With all of this news in mind, here are my predictions for who and what will earn a nomination at the 2014 Emmy Awards. Even though many eligible shows like Mad Men and Game of Thrones haven't even aired yet, I'm still pretty confident in my selections.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
- Breaking Bad
- Downton Abbey
- Game of Thrones
- House of Cards
- Mad Men
- True Detective
BEST LEAD ACTOR
- Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
- Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
- Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
- Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
- Martin Sheen (Masters of Sex)
- Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
- Claire Danes (Homeland)
- Connie Britton (Nashville)
- Elizabeth Moss (Mad Men)
- Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)
- Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
- Robin Wright (House of Cards)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
- Dean Norris (Breaking Bad)
- Jeffrey Wright (Boardwalk Empire)
- Mandy Patinkin or Damien Lewis (Homeland)
- Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
- Woody Harrelson (True Detective)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
- Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
- Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
- Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
- Michelle Monaghan (True Detective)
- Molly Parker (House of Cards)
BEST DIRECTOR
- Alfonso Cuaron, "Pilot" (Believe)
- Cary Fukunaga, "Who Goes There" (True Detective)
- Rian Johnson, "Ozymandias" (Breaking Bad)
- Tim Van Patten, "Farewell Daddy Blues" (Boardwalk Empire)
- Vince Gilligan, "Felina" (Breaking Bad)
BEST SCREENPLAY
- Michelle McLaren, "To'hajiilee" (Breaking Bad)
- Nick Pizzolatto, "???" (True Detective)
- Vince Gilligan, "Felina" (Breaking Bad)
- Matthew Weiner + ???, "???" (Mad Men)
- Matthew Weiner + ???, "???" (Mad Men)
NOTES: Mad Men and Game of Thrones have yet to be released, and they are a huge wild cards on this matter, Mad Men more than GOT. Peter Dinklage and the show itself are guaranteed nominations, but everything else is up for grabs. Emilia Clarke is the first non-Dinklage actor from the show to get a nomination in 2013, but whether she'll earn a second one depends on her story line this upcoming season.
Mad Men is a bit more stable, but still could throw a monkey wrench in the directing and writing categories. Mad Men has never been a big directing contender, but in a trippy 1969 season, you never know. The writing categories can be fluky as well. The show can get anywhere between 1-3 nominations. I feel confident it will get at least one, "Felina" will get a nomination, and one True Detective episode will get a nomination considering Nick Pizzolatto wrote every episode. After that, it's just a guess. Mad Men has also had past success in the Best Supporting Actor category with John Slattery and Jared Harris getting nominations, but the field keeps getting deeper and deeper that Slattery will have to give one hell of a performance to earn a nomination again.
SOME OTHER NOTES
- I'm not quite sure how Masters of Sex will play out come nomination time, but my gut tells me that if the show gets any nomination at all, it will be for their two leads: Sheen and Caplan.
- We'll see if Woddy Harrelson's name will be thrown into the Best Actor category (which it should because he truly is a co-lead with McConaughey) or the Best Supporting Actor category (which is Harrelson's best shot at earning a nomination).
- Molly Parker earning a nomination is more of something I want to have happen rather than something that will actually happen. If Corey Stoll couldn't earn a nomination after Season 1 of the show, no way in hell Parker has a chance.
- As always I underrate Downton Abbey because I don't think it's a very good show, and I'm sure I'll be proven wrong again.
- I feel very confident in my Alfonso Cuaron nomination even though I haven't heard very good things about the show itself. Emmys LOVE movie directors (i.e. Martin Scorsese for directing the Boardwalk Empire pilot and David Fincher for directing the House of Cards pilot).
- Last year, Best Actress had 7 nominations. My money says that doesn't happen again, but the field is now deeper with Lizzy Caplan getting consideration, so you never know. Plus, the odds of both Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel) and Kerry Washington (Scandal) not repeating a nomination in 2014 is not very good either, especially for Washington.
COMEDY
BEST COMEDY SERIES
- Brooklyn 99
- Girls
- Modern Family
- Orange Is The New Black
- The Big Bang Theory
- Veep
BEST LEAD ACTOR
- Andy Samberg (Brooklyn 99)
- Don Chedle (House of Lies)
- Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
- Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
- Robin Williams (The Crazy Ones)
- William H. Macy (Shameless)
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
- Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
- Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
- Emmy Rossum (Shameless)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
- Lena Dunham (Girls)
- Taylor Schilling (Orange Is The New Black)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Adam Driver (Girls)
- Ed O'Neil (Modern Family)
- Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
- Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
- Tony Hale (Veep)
- Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
- Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
- Kate Mulgrew (Orange Is The New Black)
- Merritt Weaver (Nurse Jackie)
- Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
- Natasha Lyonne (Orange Is The New Black)
- Sophia Vergara (Modern Family)
BEST DIRECTOR
- Girls (Lena Dunham)
- Orange Is The New Black (Jenji Kohan)
- Brooklyn 99 (???)
- Modern Family (???)
- Modern Family (???)
BEST SCREENPLAY
- Girls (Lena Dunham)
- How I Met Your Mother, "Last Forever" (Carter Bays & Craig Thomas)
- Modern Family (Steve Levitan)
- Modern Family
- Orange Is The New Black (Jenji Kohan)
NOTES: 30 Rock and Louie are not eligible this season, the former because the show ended and the latter because of a hiatus. Emmy darlings Curb Your Enthusiasm and Arrested Development also didn't air any episodes during the eligibility period, meaning the 2014 nominations are completely up in air. Orange Is The New Black will fill a big void, but outside of that, it's just a complete guess. My money, as you can see, is that Brooklyn 99 will fill a lot of other main spaces. New Girl is always in play, but after its horrible third season and little nominations after its excellent second season, I'm not holding my breath. The critic darling Shameless is now a comedy, and in a weak year, I can see it finally breaking through and earning some nods. And of course, Glee is still eligible even though nobody cares about it anymore. That being said, after its handful of nominations in 2013, I might be underestimating it.
SOME OTHER NOTES:
- Best Lead Actor has some wide open spots. Chedle, Parsons, and LeBlanc are locks, Samberg is a damn strong educated guess, but I'm clueless on the other 2 spots. Larry David and Louis C.K. would normally get them, but my complete shot in the dark is Robin Williams and William H. Macy just because they're movie stars. If I'm Andre Braugher, I'd throw my hat into this category just because my odds are so much better. Outside of Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory) I don't know who else has a realistic shot at a nomination here.
- Taylor Schilling is the only actor from Orange Is The New Black that's guaranteed a nomination. Outside of that, it's a crap shoot. I'd like to see Pablo Schreiber (Pornstache) get a nomination, but it won't happen if all 4 Modern Family males get one. Granted, that's not a guarantee because 2 time Emmy winner Eric Stonestreet didn't earn one last year, but the good bet says all 4 will get one. I think at least one actress will earn a Best Supporting Actress nomination, with the possibility of two. To me, Kate Mulgrew is almost a lock to earn a Best Supporting Actress nomination because she's been in the industry long enough and she has some great episode submissions. Outside of that, I'd rank the following in terms of their nomination odds: Natasha Lyonne (Nicky), Uzo Aduba (Crazy Eyes), Laura Prepon (Alex), Taryn Manning (Pennsatucky), & Danielle Brooks (Tastee). Albeit, this ranking is based off of nothing. Truth be told, you could have 7 actresses nominated for Best Supporting Actress, have them all be from Orange Is The New Black, have them all be deserving, and still claim some were snubbed.
- The writing and directing categories are 100% guesses. The only lock in either category is Lena Dunham. Normally Louis C.K. would also be a lock, but again, he's not eligible. I have no idea what, objectively speaking, makes for a good comic director and what, subjectively speaking, the Emmys look for in good writing. I guess when in doubt, go Modern Family.
- I do not have a good grasp on what the Emmys think of Veep. Their stars get nominations and wins, but the show never gets any writing or directing nominations. If the show is ever going to get one of those nominations, it will have to be in 2014.
- How I Met Your Mother hasn't been very good in a long, long time, but with the show coming to a close in 2014, I feel safe saying its series finale will earn a screenplay nomination a la The Office and 30 Rock finales in 2013. Granted, in those instances, both finales DESERVED a nomination.
Who Do You Think Will Earn a Primetime Emmy Nomination in 2014?
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