Preseason Running Back Rankings

Non-PPR Leagues

1) Arian Foster (HOU)
2) Ray Rice (BAL)
3) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
4) Jamaal Charles (KC)
5) Fred Jackson (BUF)
6) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)
7) Steven Jackson (STL)
8) Darren Sproles (NO)
9) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
10) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
11) Matt Forte (CHI)
12) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
13) Ryan Mathews (SD)
14) Darren McFadden (OAK)
15) Trent Richardson (CLE)
16) Reggie Bush (MIA)
17) Chris Johnson (TEN)
18) Michael Turner (ATL)
19) Frank Gore (SF)
20) Doug Martin (TB)
21) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
22) Peyton Hillis (KC)
23) Donald Brown (IND)
24) Willis McGahee (BUF)
25) Shonn Greene (NYJ)
26) Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
27) Mikel LeShoure (DET)
28) Michael Bush (CHI)
29) Ben Tate (HOU)
30) Cedric Benson (GB)
31) Ryan Williams (ARI)
32) Rashad Jennings (JAX)
33) Toby Gerhart (MIN)
34) Beanie Wells (ARI)
35) DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
36) Mark Ingram (NO)
37) David Wilson (NYG)
38) Robert Turbin (SEA)
39) Ronnie Hillman (DEN)
40) Roy Helu (WAS)
41) Taiwan Jones (OAK)
42) Kendall Hunter (SF)
43) LaGarette Blount (TB)
44) Daniel Thomas (MIA)
45) Ronnie Brown (SD)
46) Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL)
47) Mike Goodson (OAK)
48) Alex Green (GB)
49) Evan Royster (WAS)
50) Shane Vereen (NE)

PPR Leagues

1) Arian Foster (HOU)
2) Ray Rice (BAL)
3) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
4) Darren Sproles (NO)
5) Jamaal Charles (KC)
6) Fred Jackson (BUF)
7) Steven Jackson (STL)
8) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)
9) Matt Forte (CHI)
10) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
11) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
12) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
13) Ryan Mathews (SD)
14) Darren McFadden (OAK)
15) Reggie Bush (MIA)
16) Trent Richardson (CLE)
17) Chris Johnson (TEN)
18) Michael Turner (ATL)
19) Frank Gore (SF)
20) Doug Martin (TB)
21) Peyton Hillis (KC)
22) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
23) Donald Brown (IND)
24) Willis McGahee (DEN)
25) Shonn Greene (NYJ)
26) Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
27) Mikel LeShoure (DET)
28) Michael Bush (CHI)
29) Ben Tate (HOU)
30) Cedric Benson (GB)
31) Ryan Williams (ARI)
32) Rashad Jennings (JAX)
33) Toby Gerhart (MIN)
34) Beanie Wells (ARI)
35) DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
36) Mark Ingram (NO)
37) David Wilson (NYG)
38) Robert Turbin (SEA)
39) Ronnie Hillman (DEN)
40) Roy Helu (WAS)
41) Taiwan Jones (OAK)
42) Kendall Hunter (SF)
43) LaGarette Blount (TB)
44) Daniel Thomas (MIA)
45) Ronnie Brown (SD)
46) Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL)
47) Mike Goodson (OAK)
48) Alex Green (GB)
49) Evan Royster (WAS)
50) Shane Vereen (NE)

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Preseason Wide Receiver Rankings

Non-PPR Leagues

1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Wes Welker (NE)
3) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
4) Roddy White (ATL)
5) Brandon Marshall (CHI)
6) Greg Jennings (GB)
7) A.J. Green (CIN)
8) Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
9) Brandon Lloyd (NE)
10) Jordy Nelson (GB)
12) Mike Wallace (PIT)
13) Julio Jones (ATL)
14) Percy Harvin (MIN)
15) Marques Colston (NO)
16) Victor Cruz (NYG)
17) Andre Johnson (HOU)
18) Dez Bryant (DAL)
19) Miles Austin (DAL)
20) Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
21) Steve Smith (CAR)
22) Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
23) Antonio Brown (PIT)
24) Dewayne Bowe (KC)
25) Stevie Johnson (BUF)
26) Vincent Jackson (TAM)
27) Kenny Britt (TEN)
27) Malcolm Floyd (SD)
28) DeSean Jackson (PHI)
29) Reggie Wayne (IND)
30) Torrey Smith (BAL)
31) Mario Manningham (SF)
32) Eric Decker (DEN)
33) Pierre Garcon (WAS)
34) Santonio Holmes (NYJ)
35) Michael Crabtree (SF)
36) Laurent Robinson (JAX)
37) Lance Moore (NO)
38) Austin Collie (IND)
39) Robert Meachum (SD)
40) Darrius Heyword-Bey (OAK)
41) Denarius Moore (OAK)
42) Anquan Boldin (BAL)
43) Kendall Wright (TEN)
44) Devery Henderson (NO)
45) Nate Washington (TEN)
46) Justin Blackmon (JAX)
47) Greg Little (CLE)
48) Mike Williams (TAM)
49) Sidney Rice (SEA)
50) Randy Moss (SF)

PPR Leagues

1) Wes Welker (NE)
2) Calvin Johnson (DET)
3) Roddy White (ATL)
4) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
5) Brandon Marshall (CHI)
6) Greg Jennings (GB)
7) A.J. Green (CIN)
8) Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
9) Jordy Nelson (GB)
10) Mike Wallace (PIT)
11) Brandon Lloyd (NE)
12) Percy Harvin (MIN)
13) Marques Colston (NO)
14) Julio Jones (ATL)
15) Andre Johnson (HOU)
16) Victor Cruz (NYG)
17) Dez Bryant (DAL)
18) Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
19) Miles Austin (DAL)
20) Eric Decker (DEN)
21) Antonio Brown (PIT)
22) Steve Smith (CAR)
23) Dewayne Bowe (KC)
24) Stevie Johnson (BUF)
25) Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
26) Vincent Jackson (TAM)
27) Kenny Britt (TEN)
28) Malcolm Floyd (SD)
29) DeSean Jackson (PHI)
30) Mario Manningham (SF)
31) Reggie Wayne (IND)
32) Torrey Smith (BAL)
33) Pierre Garcon (WAS)
34) Santonio Holmes (NYJ)
35) Michael Crabtree (SF)
36) Laurent Robinson (JAX)
37) Davone Bess (MIA)
38) Lance Moore (NO)
39) Robert Meachum (SD)
40) Austin Collie (IND)
41) Darrius Heyword-Bey (OAK)
42) Denarius Moore (OAK)
43) Greg Little (CLE)
44) Anquan Boldin (BAL)
45) Kendall Wright (TEN)
46) Devery Henderson (NO)
47) Nate Washington (TEN)
48) Justin Blackmon (JAX)
49) Sidney Rice (SEA)
50) Randy Moss (SF)
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Preseason Tight End Rankings

Ten Team League

1) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
2) Jimmy Graham (NO)
3) Antonio Gates (SD)
4) Vernon Davis (SF)
5) Fred Davis (WAS)
6) Jermichael Finley (GB)
7) Aaron Hernandez (NE)
8) Jason Witten (DAL)
9) Jacob Tamme (DEN)
10) Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
11) Jared Cook (TEN)
12) Owen Daniels (HOU)
13) Greg Olson (CAR)
14) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
15) Coby Fleener (IND)

Twelve Team League

1) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
2) Jimmy Graham (NO)
3) Antonio Gates (SD)
4) Vernon Davis (SF)
5) Fred Davis (WAS)
6) Jermichael Finley (GB)
7) Aaron Hernandez (NE)
8) Jason Witten (DAL)
9) Jacob Tamme (DEN)
10) Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
11) Greg Olson (CAR)
12) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
13) Jered Cook (TEN)
14) Owen Daniels (HOU)
15) Coby Fleener (IND)

PPR League

1) Jimmy Graham (NO)
2) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
3) Antonio Gates (SD)
4) Jermichael Finley (GB)
5) Fred Davis (WAS)
6) Aaron Hernandez ( NE)
7) Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
8) Vernon Davis (SF)
9) Jason Witten (DAL)
10) Greg Olson (CAR)
11) Jacob Tamme (DEN)
12) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
13) Jered Cook (TEN)
14) Owen Daniels (HOU)
15) Coby Fleener (IND)
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Fantasy Football Facts For 2012 (Positive Edition)

The post prior and the post below this one is a list of facts about all the bad things regarding football players and the overvaluing of players. But I hate to be a Debbie Downer. Plus, you need to be able to draft SOME players for your team. So here is a list of the players I like and would want to own (or do own) on my fantasy teams.

- RUNNING BACKS I BELIEVE IN:

I hate the running backs class this year. I feel like in this year more than any other year there are two many questions marks surrounding the top 25 in the class of backs. On my hate list I included: Ryan Matthews, Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Willis McGahee, and Shonn Greene. That's 9 out of the top 25 ranked running backs according to ESPN. Take out the consensus big three (Foster, Rice, and McCoy) and that only leaves you with 13 (or little over half) of the rest of the "top tiered talent" to choose from. Here are some steady guys I like:

- BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)

In 2010 The Law Firm got over 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns for the Patriots while only starting 10 games. Imagine what he can do while starting 16 as The Guy for a team (the Cincinnati Bengals) that made Cedric Benson look good.

- Darren Sproles (NO)

Especially more for PPR and 1/2 PPR league. Sporles was a top ten fantasy back in PPR leagues in 2011.

- Steven Jackson (STL)

The guy is just rock solid, has only missed two games within the last three years, plays for a very run heavy coach in Jeff Fischer and the safety, to me, is worth the risk versus guys like Ryan Matthews and Darren McFadden. 

               - INJURY PRONE RUNNING BACKS I LIKE:

- Jamaal Charles (KC)

The guy was a top 2 talent in fantasy only two years ago. There is no reason he shouldn't revert back to form. While all injury experts say he won't be the same player early on in the year (so maybe you can take a Rashad Jennings to help even the work load) I think he'll be money in the bank come playoff time.

- Adrian Peterson (MIN)

A.D. is just a physical beast and in this day and age of "consensus top 10-12" running backs being huge questions marks to me, I'll take the guy who has been hands down the #1 overall pick in fantasy leagues for the past three seasons or so. His injury doesn't scare me (although I recommend all A.D. to also draft Toby Gerhart just in case A.D. doesn't play all 16 games).

NOTE: I have the aforementioned five running backs in my top 10 RB rankings. 

- I BELIEVE IN HARVEY DENT. AND PHILIP RIVERS.

I have Phillip Rivers (SD) as my 5th best quarterback only behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Newton. Rivers put up his usual yards and touchdowns in 2011 but the fantasy killer (which also affected his other statistics) was the 20 interceptions he threw. Not only do I expect his 2011 season to be an outlier (because it is) but I believe adding Robert Meachum and the subtraction of Vincent Jackson from the Chargers is a good thing for Rivers. Rivers' best fantasy season was in 2010 when VJax held out most of the year and Rivers was throwing to nobody but scrubs. Plus, Rivers is going super late which means you can get a top five fantasy quarterback dirt cheap. In The Cover 3 fantasy league Philip Rivers went for $9. NINE DOLLARS! That's ridiculously cheap. 

- TIGHT ENDS I BELIEVE IN:

- Rob Gronkowski (NE)

I know the 17 touchdowns is not repeatable but I'm all in on him and if I were in a snake draft there are many situations in which I would take him in the first round of a ten team league. I will die and sink with with ship and believe he will have another monster season in 2012.

- Fred Davis (WAS)

He's always been talented and underrated but always had Chris Cooley there. Cooley's not there anymore and Davis has a legit QB to throw him the ball.

- Jacob Tamme (DEN)

Joel Dressen there does scare me but the last time Tamme had Peyton Manning throwing to him he was an elite TE in fantasy.

-WIDE RECEIVERS I BELIEVE IN:

- Brandon Marshall (CHI)

Call me a Bears homer but I love Marshall this year. While he is on a new team, that fact doesn't scare me because he has proven, great chemistry with Jay Cutler. The guy has the physical tools to catch the short stuff, run routes, and also has the speed the stretch the field. All great attributes in a player and now has a legitimate QB to throw him the ball (no offense Chad Henne and Matt Moore. Oh wait, yes, I do mean to offend).

- Brandon Lloyd (NE)

Call me an Illini homer but Lloyd has always done great things with coordinator/coach Josh McDaniels. Many have cited Lloyd's presence on the Pats as an excuse to downgrade Gronk and Welker. I think Lloyd hurts Aaron Hernandez most of all and I also think Tom Brady is going to put up spectacular and record-breaking numbers (or close to it) this year. ESPN ranks Lloyd as their 17th best receiver. He's in my top 10. 

- Jordy Nelson (GB)

Last year Nelson was ranked 2nd in DYAR (total value) and 1st in DVOA (value per play) according to FootballOutsiders.com. You know the last breakout player to have similar numbers? Mike Wallace. While the touchdowns may not be legitimate (or at least the crazy amount he had) I believe Nelson's talent and fantasy production is.

-Mario Manningham (SF)

I always liked Manningham's talent and route running capabilities and I drafted him very high in 2011 with the departure of Steve Smith from the Giants (as it turns out I was correct in that the WR opposite of Hakeem Nicks would be a fantasy superstar, I just choose the wrong guy). While Super Mario is now on the conservative throwing 49ers I believe his route running skills will translate into fantasy gold in Jim Harbaugh's scheme. ESPN has him as the 43rd ranked wide out. I have him at #30. 

- Reggie Wayne (IND)

Why do I like him? I just do. Probably mainly for the value but I own him in one league and tried to own him in my other (I did not enough money to go to $3 for Wayne in that league. Sad face.). He think he has a Steve Smith (CAR) -esque bounce back year in 2012.

-QUARTERBACKS I LIKE:

- Tim Tebow (NYJ)

While Tebow is not a good real life quarterback his rushing skills and rushing touchdowns make him a great fantasy quarterback. Not only is Mark Sanchez not good at football but the Tebow hype will force the Jets to start Tebow and I think Tebow starts more games than Sanchez does. Tebow is a top ten fantasy QB on a per start basis. 

- Josh Freeman (TB)

It's hard to bang the Josh Freeman drum when he's my 17th ranked QB but I kinda like him this year. Probably only for 2 QBs leagues or if you're desperate for a back up but the one player no one is talking about that I think has the best chance to crack into the top 10 who is going super late in drafts or not being drafted is the Tampa Bay signal caller.

-BACK UP RUNNING BACKS I BELIEVE WILL BE THE STARTER (AND GOOD) BY WEEK 8:

-Mikel LeShoure (DET)

The guy was a great prospect coming out of college but off-the-field issues and injuries have derailed his professional career. While he's suspended for the first two games of the 2012 season his competition is still Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, and Keiland Williams. Best and Smith are almost mortal locks to have season ending surgery by Week 8 and if Keiland Williams is theonly competition then LeShoure will be given the RB reigns and will not let go.

- Ryan Williams (ARI)

God, I just hate Beanie Wells so damn much. So do the Cardinals. 

- C.J. Spiller (BUF)

Even though Fred Jackson has really done nothing to prove he shouldn't be a 20-25 carry a game back, I just believe in Spiller this year.

-Ronnie Hillman (DEN)

I just don't trust the 31 year old and recent Ray Rice back up Willis McGahee. Also, running backs in a Peyton Manning scheme tend to do very well if they have even a modicum of talent. Just look at Edge James and Jospeh Addai in his rookie year.

-Taiwan Jones (OAK)

I can pencil it in right now that Darren McFadden will miss at least 6 games this year which allows for plenty of carries for his back up. I believe Jones and not Mike Goodson will be the guy based on the information coming out of Raiders camp. 

-RUNNING BACKS IN TIME SHARES I WANT TO OWN:

-Peyton Hillis (KC)

In 2010 both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones were great fantasy players. I expect the same thing to happen in 2012 where both Chiefs running backs will be great. I have always liked Hillis (expect for last year where he suffered from the Madden Curse) dating back to his days in Denver and I like him again this year. The kid's got skills and will see plenty of carries which is a great recipe for fantasy success.

-Michael Bush (CHI)

See: Forte, Matt in my Negative Edition

-Ben Tate (HOU)

Truthfully I just like Houston's run blocking offensive line and Tate's talent more than I like Tate as a fantasy running back but skills + good O-line + *some* carries and touches makes me warm and fuzzy inside. Although I might have Ben Tate blinders on seeing he only average some odd 7 touches a game when Arian Foster started the game.

-LaGarrette Blount (TB)

I just think the hate has gone too far on Blount and the love of Doug Martin has gone too far as well. Don't get me wrong, I only like Blount for his super late value and for deeper leagues but I kinda like him this year. And yes Doug Martin lovers, there will be a time share in Tampa Bay. 

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Fantasy Football Facts For 2012 (Negative Edition)

I told you so.

It is such a gratifying phrase. It's always nice to be able to say "I told you so" to others and it is always makes you want to punch a person in face whenever it is said to you. This phrase is especially nice to say in the fantasy football (or any fantasy sport) community. Fantasy sports is all about predicting the future and as such there are many calls that we "analysts" get right and many calls we get wrong.

For example, I was huge on Rob Gronkowski last year. When many people (mainly the Fantasy Focus duo) were banging the Aaron Hernandez drum I was solidly riding the Gronkowski bandwagon. However, during that same year, a friend of mine came to me for advice. He had a plethora of running backs and he wanted to trade one of them for a wide receiver. Very, very early on in the season he was offered Carolina's Steve Smith for one of his running backs. I told him he should hold out for better. He did so and was able to snag a better wide out: Tampa Bay's Mike Williams.

Hey, you win some, you lose some.

Well here are a list of facts I firmly believe in so I can say "I told you so" at the end of the year

- CHRIS JOHNSON WILL BE BAD. AGAIN.

Many people have Chris Johnson as their 4th best running back (behind some combination of Ray Rice, Arian Foster, and LeSean McCoy). As one friend said to me, "Would it surprise you if Chris Johnson ran for 1600 yards this season?" to which I replied, "no". He retorted, "Well then, how can you justify you ranking Chris Johnson so low?" I have CJ0K (as Christopher Harris joked) as my 20th ranked running back. The reason for this is because I think he will barely crack the top 20 of running backs this year. Many people are giving Johnson a mulligan for his 2011 season. I am not.

Last year, Chris Johnson was the 16th ranked running back. And he played all 16 games. I could buy that his hold out hurt him for some of his season and since he is fully in camp this year, he'll return to his greatness.  I don't buy it. During the latter half of the Titans schedule they faced many bad rushing defensive teams and most of them gave Johnson trouble (teams included two matches against Indy, Tampa Bay, and Carolina). I could buy and even understand that his lack of conditioning hurt him in the beginning of the year but after 8+ games there is just no excuse.

Running backs generally have a short shelf life in the NFL and I just think Johnson is close to his end (as a huge Chris Johnson fan and as a man that touted him as the #1 overall pick last year it brings me no pleasure to say that). His game is mainly predicated on burst and when that goes, so does any semblance of fantasy (and real life) production. Add to that Tennessee still has a terrible offensive line and I think the days of CJ2K are over.

- THE SAINTS WILL BE BAD WITHOUT SEAN PAYTON.

Many people have the Saints winning the Superbowl. I don't even have them making the playoffs. In fact, I have them third in their division. Sean Payton missed one game last year because a player accidentally broke his leg during a game the week beforehand. That meant that this dominant Saints team would have had to find a way to win against the win-less (at the time), gunning-to-win-the-Andrew-Luck-sweepstakes St. Louis Rams. And on that day David defeated Goliath.

Sure that is just one game but that game speaks volumes to me. I know Drew Brees and the Saints have looked really good during this preseason but when was the last time how a team performed in the preseason equals how they performed during the regular season? Hell, the 0-16 Detroit Lions went 4-0 during that preseason.

Obviously, for fantasy purposes, Drew Brees and the Saints will not produce as well as they did last year during Brees' record breaking run, but I think without Payton as the signal caller this team is in big trouble. I wanted to not rank Brees within my top three quarterbacks (my initial rankings had Vick at #3 with Rodgers at #1 and Brady at #2) but with Vick's injury history, question marks surrounding both Manning brothers, a potential sophomore slump for Cam Newton, a Megatron-less Matthew Stafford (see: below), and Philip Rivers' atrocious 2011 campaign, I had to rank Brees as my #3 ranked quarterback. But I really did not want to.

I ended up with Tom Brady as my QB in both my leagues but I didn't get him or Aaron Rodgers I would have waited to get Phillip Rivers.

- MEGATRON (AND STAFFORD) WILL SUFFER FROM THE MADDEN CURSE.

I ranked Calvin Johnson as my #1 wide out but that's only because I couldn't think of any other wide out to put there. I would have put my man-crush Mike Wallace #1 if he didn't hold out or Roddy White if Julio Jones wasn't there. But even though I ranked him #1 I did not and would not touch him in any of my leagues. I am normally not THIS superstitious but after 12 straight years I would rather stay away and have the Madden Cover Player be good on another team than take on said player and have me suffer from the curse. 

But take the curse out of it and you still have a wide receiver who has had an up and down career with some injury risk. In 2009 he only started 14 games, only got 5 receiving touchdowns and did not crack 1,000 receiving yards. You also have the injury prone Matthew Stafford who really only has one season (last season) under his belt.

Nevertheless, I truly believe believe in the Madden Curse which means I truly believe Megatron will be bad or injury-riddled next season which in turn will lead to an ineffective (rather not *as* effective) Matthew Stafford (if he manages to stay healthy for another 16 games). Stafford's game last year was mainly predicated on throwing it up to Johnson and letting Megatron be the beast he is, fight off defenders, and come down with the ball. But no (or a bad) Calvin Johnson means the Detroit signal caller's statistics will suffer as well. 

- MICHAEL BUSH WILL HURT MATT FORTE'S FANTASY VALUE.

I understand (all too well as a Forte owner last year and as a Bears fan) that scoring touchdowns and short yardage situations are not part of Matt Forte's game. The guy just gets a crazy amount of yards from scrimmage year after year after year. That is why I loved the Marion Barber signing last year. The only game Barber had was converting those 4th and 1 and those red zone touchdowns. But with Barber gone and the Bears needing a hole to fill and new GM Phil Emory being awesome, the Bears signed former Raiders RB and Run DMC back up Michael Bush this offseason. Here's the thing, there are many great parts of Bush's game more than just getting short yardage. He can catch. He can run. And he's just overall really good at football. 

Michael Bush was the 11th ranked running back last year while only starting six games. The guy has legitimate starting running back talent and eventually I believe he will just take carries away from Forte. I don't mean get carries along with Forte but actually take away carries from Forte. As a Bears fan I am completely fine with that but as a fantasy owner (at least for Forte) I am not. In fact, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice has said that he wants two 1,000 yard rushers in 2012. A feat rarely and not easily accomplished. Granted, it is possible for Forte to be a top 7 running back with both Forte and Bush getting over 1,000 rushing yards but I just don't see that happening. Especially not with the addition of Brandon Marshall and an improved Bears passing game.

- INJURY PRONE RUNNING BACKS I JUST DON'T LIKE:
- Darren McFadden (OAK)
- Ryan Matthews (SD)
- Frank Gore (SF)

- STARTING RUNNING BACKS I JUST THINK ARE BAD:
(NOTE: By "bad" I just mean I really do not want to own them on my team)
- Michael Turner (ATL)
- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
- Beanie Wells (ARI)
- Cedric Benson (GB)
- Shonn Greene (NYJ)
- Willis McGahee (DEN)
- Isaac Redman / Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
- Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
NOTE: The guy's an amazing talent but he has still held out this late into the off season and with Chris Johnson's hold out last year I just don't feel good owning MJD

SIDENOTE: Yeah, I really am not pleased with the running back crop this year. Like, I REALLY don't like or trust most of the NFL's starters

- "TOP TIERED" WIDE OUTS I DON'T TRUST THIS YEAR:

- Andre Johnson (HOU)
- Victor Cruz (NYG)
- Steve Smith (CAR)
- Vincent Jackson (TB)
- Dez Bryant/Miles Austin (DAL)

-BACK UP RUNNING BACKS I DON'T LIKE:

- David Wilson (NYG)

I think Wilson could be solid and effective but I don't think he is anything special and while I don't like Bradshaw I still think Bradshaw is going to get significant carries and two "eh" running backs don't do it for me

- Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL)

Analogous to Wilson, while I do not like Michael Turner I think he will play in every game, he just won't be effective. Rodgers has become a trendy sleeper because there is a lot of hate surrounding Michael Turner but I think Turner will get carries but just will not do much with them which does not bode well for Rodgers. It's hard to get fantasy points when you're not on the field.

- Ronnie Brown (SD)

I believe Brown will start a significant amounts of games because of Ryan Matthews' injury history but I just don't think he will do much with those starts

- Brandon Jacobs (SF)

see: Brown, Ronnie. I believe Kendall Hunter is the Gore back up you want

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Projecting The 2012 NFL Season

As always, I have to clarify that I believe all projections are worthless because not only is there a lot of groupthink involved which heavily sways opinion but almost all the time, if not every single time, projections are just flat out wrong. Projections asks ordinary human beings to predict the future and it is just not something we mere mortals of capable of doing. Yet. Despite that, projections are still fun to do and something that people love to read about and I love to write about.

NFC NORTH
1) Green Bay Packers
2) Chicago Bears*
3) Detroit Lions*
4) Minnesota Vikings

Overall Thoughts:
In my opinion this is the toughest division in football right now. I'm sure you can make the argument that the AFC North is better and you're probably right, but this division went from one of the weakest to one of the toughest in the past few years... The Green Bay Packers are by far and away the best overall team in football led by Aaron Rodgers and a defense that's better than you think. It's hard to prove you are a good defense when your offense is putting up 35 points a game... Last year I put the Chicago Bears second in the division over the then trendy Detroit Lions and if Jay Cutler did not get injured (even despite the Matt Forte injury) the Bears would have had a better record than the Lions. The Lions still have not proven themselves better than the Bears and until they take second place away from Chicago (as opposed to Chicago giving it away) I will always put the Bears on top. The addition of Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall will give the Bears a potent offensive attack to go along with their staunch defense (although the Brian Urlacher injury could be a playoff killer)... I have always been weary of the Madden curse and with Calvin Johnson on the cover this year, I'm scared for both Megatron and the Lions offense. As good of numbers as Stafford put up last year, a lot of his throws came just by throwing a jump ball and having Megatron be better than everyone else and winning the "500 game". An injured or non-productive Johnson equals a mediocre offense... The Vikings were terrible last year and did nothing to drastically improve their team and while I believe AD will play and be his old self again, it's hard seeing them getting more than 5 wins.

NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia Eagles
2) New York Giants
3) Washington Redskins
4) Dallas Cowboys

Overall Thoughts
I'm sick of everyone clamoring this to be a top tiered division. This is mainly because we all overrate the teams, mainly the Cowboys and until last year the Giants (of course you can also make the argument that the Eagles hype went too far) so in honor of the backlash, I'm saying no one from the division will earn a wild card birth, like last year... The Eagles were anointed one of, if the not the best teams in football last year and deservingly so and if the Philly franchise wasn't run by retards and a)Have their offensive line coach become their defensive coordinator and b)Run a 9-2 defensive scheme with 3 out of the top 15 (maybe even top 10) cornerbacks in the league they they would have won this division. A new D-coordinator equals a playoff contender... Despite the Giants winning the Superbowl last team, the team overall under head coach Tom Coughlin has been an inconsistent and mediocre regular season team. I expect that trend to continue... The Redskins have had a pretty good defense over the past few years and can you image what the Carolina Panthers would have been last year if Cam Newton wasn't playing with an atrocious defense?... Tony Romo is an injury risk, DeMarco Murray is an injury risk, Miles Austin is an injury risk, Jason Witten has a broken spleen, and Dez Bryant is an injury risk as well as a suspension risk. Plus, one of the worst offensive lines in the game. No matter how good of a team you are (and Dallas was not all that good to begin with) injuries always equals a losing season in the NFL.

NFC SOUTH
1) Atlanta Falcons
2) Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3) New Orleans Saints
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carolina Panthers

Overall Thoughts
Atlanta seems like the tallest midget to me. Despite the talent on offense and despite the moniker "Matty Ice", Matt Ryan has yet to prove to me he's a quarterback capable of even whiffing guys like Tom Brady or even Phillip Rivers's a**hole. (NOTE: I would have said the same thing about Eli Manning last year at this time and he proved me wrong during the 2011 season). Even two years ago when Atlanta had the best record in the NFC, nothing about them scared me and I was proven right when they didn't win a single playoff game that year (in fact Ryan has never won a playoff game) and the Falcons would have not made the playoffs last year if Jay Cutler had been healthy all 16 games... Don't really like Cam Newton or Steve Smith all that much this year but I really hate the Saints this season and the Panthers do have an elite talent level quarterback... Last year, when head coach Sean Peyton missed a game the Saints lost to the St. Louis Rams, a team that was fighting all year long to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Sean Peyton's injury scares me a lot and he means a lot more to this team that I think people realize... As much as I like Josh Freeman and I think he will revert to his 2010 self, I'm too much of a pu$$y to put them ahead of the other teams and even if I'm "right" and the Bucs do have a bad season this season, their team is still super, super young and a future force to be reckoned with

NFC WEST
1) San Fransico 49ers
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) Arizona Cardinals
4) St. Louis Rams

Overall Thoughts
Even if the 49ers are not as good or dominant as they were last year, their rise to the NFL elite status was not a fluke and in probably the worst division in football, they will remain perched atop the NFC West. As much as I dislike the man, Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach... While I do not trust either T.O. or Sidney Rice and even with many games missed by Beast Mode (Marshawn Lynch) the Seahawks have one of the best offensive lines in football which will make Matt Flynn and Robert Turbin look pretty darn good... Kevin Kolb is horrible but John Skelton is an average to above-average QB. Larry Fitzgerald fantasy owners might have to wait a few weeks though before getting elite level production from him... I still believe in the power and talent of Sam Bradford and while the Rams did add super coach (although he has always been overrated to me) Jeff Fischer what else really did they add to make them not be a bottom dwelling team?

AFC NORTH
1) Baltimore Ravens
2) Cincinnati Bengals*
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Cleveland Browns

Overall Thoughts
As much as I do not like Joe Flacco or the way the Ravens O-coordinator has handled many offensive games in 2011 (i.e. by allowing Joe Flacco to "take over games"), this team has one of the best offensive weapons in the game in Ray Rice and an always killer defense which means 12-13 wins for them is almost inevitable... Really like the BenJarvis Green-Ellis signing (hell, Marvin Lewis made Cedric Benson look good. Imagine what he can do with a talented running back) to add to the trifecta of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Plus, the Bungals have a nice little defense there... The Steelers will duke it out with the Cowboys for the worst offensive line in football which I believe will cause a stuttering offense and with Bill Cowher's team getting older and moving towards ineffectiveness and with Mike Tomlin's team coming into fruition (I never liked Mike Tomlin in terms of drafting and running a team and have always touted to deaf ears that he inherited one of the best jobs in football by getting Cowher's amazing team and Dick LeBeau's amazing defensive schemes) I think Tomlin's "true colors" will show. And those colors are "bad". Maybe it's "puke green"?... Brown have by far and away the worst receiving corps in the NFL, one of the worst offenses in the NFL and I can't name you a single defensive player they have. Does Josh Cribbs play defense as well?

AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots
2) Buffalo Bills*
3) New York Jets
4) Miami Dolphins

Overall Thoughts:
Despite all the struggles the Pats had on defense in 2011 they still have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in 2012 to end up being the top dog in a pretty terrible division... Whether or not I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick's ineffectiveness in 2011 was due to a rib injury or just Ryan Fitzpatrick being Ryan Fitzpatrick, they still have an awesome running game with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller and the addition of Mario Williams gives the Bills a damn good front seven... A terrible Jets team was made worse by a)Adding Tim Tebow b)Continuing to play Mark Sanchez at QB c)Losing L.T. and Plaxico Burress without adding anyone to replace them and d)An old team becoming one year older... God are the Miami Dolphins bad and they made themselves worse by trading away Brandon Marshall and starting (in 2012) Ryan Tannenhill (Matt Moore was surprisingly better than you think).

AFC SOUTH
1) Houston Texans
2) Tennessee Titans
3) Indianapolis Colts
4) Jacksonville Jaguars

Overall Thoughts:
I still don't like Gary Kubiak has a head coach but the defensive talent he still has along with Arian Foster and Ban Tate will be enough to win games over the rest of the terrible teams in this division... I had a really tough time determining which bad team was worse the Titans over the Colts. I choose the Titans because they won't have a rookie at the helm. Just a fantasy note, I hate Chris Johnson this year and I'm not giving him a mulligan for last year. CJ2K's game was all predicated on burst and if he's lost it, which I believe he has, he's just a run-of-the-mill runningback.. I know it is a lazy comparison but I do believe Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning. That being said, even Manning went 1-15 his rookie year. The reason a team picks first overall is because they have and continue to have a horrific team... Despite the nice little receiving corps the Jags have, they still have Blaine Gabbert running the ship. That being said, I could see Jacksonville having the best defense in this division and that combined with MJD could mean a first place finish in this bad division. But again, they still have Blaine Gabbert.

AFC WEST
1) San Diego Chargers
2) Denver Broncos
3) Oakland Raiders
4) Kansas City Chiefs

Overall Thoughts:
My raging boner for Phillip Rivers knows no bounds. The only reason he didn't end up on my fantasy team was because the beautiful Tom Brady was severely undervalued and I couldn't pass up the price (and thank goodness I did). Last year I projected the Chargers to win the Superbowl but now as I clear the egg off of my face I like the addition of Robert Meachum and the subtraction of Vincent Jackson. Obviously not from a talent perspective but from a chemistry perspective. In 2010, when Rivers was literally throwing to people off of the street he had his best season. I think the same will happen again this year... Even if a 36 year old Peyton Manning manages to stay healthy for all 16 games and even if for some reason Demaryius Thomas also plays 16 games and is the next Marvin Harrison and even if Eric Decker puts up Reggie Wayne-esque numbers, Manning still will play 15 out of his 16 games outdoors and will not get the benefit of cooshy, indoors Lucas Oil Stadium. Plus, even if Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are the sack machines they were last year, the rest of their defense is so terrible that having an amazing pass rush will not make up for the rest of the holes. Point is, this was an incredibly lucky team last year and will not repeat... Carson Palmer will rebound having had not only an offseason with the team but also the ability to play all 16 games with the Raiders... As much as I like the rushing attack of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis for the Chiefs, very little can make up for the fact that Kansas City has Romeo Crennel as their head coach.

** Denotes Wild Card Birth
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